Footnotes 1

 《风险、不确定性和利润(英)》

Part I, Chapter I

1. Cf. Mackenzie, Introduction to Social Philosophy, p. 58. Also Bagehot, Economic Studies, no. 1: "The Presuppositions of English Political Economy."

2. There are three types or schools of mathematical economic theory, connected with the names of Cournot, Jevons, and Walras respectively. Dr. Vilfredo Pareto, of the University of Lausanne (successor of Walras), is now the most prominent exponent of the mathematical method. Among "literary" pure theorists, Wicksteed, Schumpeter, and Pantaleoni stand out.

3. Logic, book VI, chaps. IX and X.

4. The relations between deduction and induction are intimate, and a rigid separation or contrast between the two methods is misleading. A more careful study of the fundamentals of scientific method will be undertaken hereafter (chapter VII). We shall see that there is ultimately no such fact as deduction as commonly understood, that inference is from particulars to particular, and that generalization is always tentative and a mere labor-saving device. The fact is, however, that we can study facts intelligently and fruitfully only in the light of hypotheses, while hypotheses have value more or less in proportion to the amount of antecedent concrete knowledge of fact on which they are based. The actual procedure of science thus consists of making and testing hypotheses. The first hypotheses in any field are usually the impressions of "common sense"; i.e., of that superficial knowledge forced upon intelligence by direct contact with the world. Study, in the light of any hypothesis, corrects or refutes the guiding generalization and suggests new points of view, to be criticized and tested in the same way, and so the organization of the material proceeds. The importance of generalization arises from the fact that as our minds are built, it is nearly fruitless to attempt to observe phenomena unless we approach them with questions to be answered. This is what a hypothesis really is, a question. Superficial observation suggests questions which study answers. If and so long as it answers a question affirmatively and the answer is not contradicted by the test of practical application or casual observation, we have a law of nature, a truth about our environment which enables us to react intelligently to it in our conduct.

There is, then, little if any use for induction in the Baconian sense of an exhaustive collection and collation of facts, though in some cases this may be necessary and fruitful. On the other hand, there is equally little use for deduction taken as doing more than suggesting hypotheses, subject to verification. It is to be noted, however, that our common-sense generalizations have a very high degree of certainty in some fields, giving us, in regard to the external world, for instance, the "axioms" of mathematics. Even more important in the present connection is the r鬺e of common sense or intuition in the study of human phenomena. Observation and intuition are, indeed, hardly distinguishable operations in much of the field of human behavior. Our knowledge of ourselves is based on introspective observation, but is so direct that it may be called intuitive. Its extension to our fellow human beings is also based upon the interpretation of the communicative signs of speech, gesture, facial expression, etc., far more than upon direct observation of behavior, and this process of interpretation is highly instinctive and subconscious in character. Many of the fundamental laws of economics are therefore properly "intuitive" to begin with, though of course always subject to correction by induction in the ordinary sense of observation and statistical treatment of data.

These brief statements must not be thought of as dealing with philosophical problems. The writer is, like Mill, an empiricist, holding that all general truths or axioms are ultimately inductions from experience. By induction as a method is meant deliberate, scientific induction, the planned study of instances for the purpose of ascertaining their "law." And deduction means reaching new truth by the application of general laws to particular cases. In the present view both of these processes are regarded as suggestive merely, exhaustive induction and conclusive deduction being alike impossible.

5. The reader will recall Comte's arrangement of the sciences in the order of generality of the principles they establish. Mathematics, the properties of space and of quantity in the abstract, is applicable to all phenomena—and tells us correspondingly little about any of them. The laws of matter, of living matter, etc., are less general and more concretely real. The same principles are applicable within any grand division of knowledge.

6. Cf. Mill's Essays on Unsettled Questions, no. 5, which really leaves little to be said on the subject. Also Cairnes, on the Character and Logical Method of Political Economy, and the discussions of methodology of the English economists generally. The conception of the "economic man" was one way of emphasizing the abstract and simplified character of the premises of the science. Keynes's Scope and Logical Method of Political Economy is as ably clear and conclusive discussion of this whole subject.

7. It is necessary to admit that in fact only a pitifully small fraction of the race have any particular theoretical sense in the mechanical field either. Certainly a vast majority of literate adults with elementary experience with machinery have no real comprehension of the most fundamental principles of the transformation and equivalence of forces. As far as their own insight is concerned, they could easily be taken in with crude perpetual motion schemes, and an astonishing proportion are willing to back their own judgment in such matters against what they know to be the unanimous verdict of the scientific world. The recurrent discussion of such projects in our National Congress are familiar. A certain mechanical "handiness" is probably all that is to be found in any but the rare scientific minds, and these handy men are precisely the ones who seem most likely to waste their lives and means over palpably absurd enterprises. A large proportion even of competent engineers have neither comprehension nor appreciation of physical theory.

8. The static state idea is further developed along rigidly theoretical lines by Professor Schumpeter in Austria.

9. We shall attempt to show that it does not represent, as Professor Clark contends, the assumptions implicit in the classical economic theory. (See chapter II.)

10. Cf. Dewey's definition of reason as the method of social diagnosis and prognosis.

11. We need not here more than mention the obvious fact that the theoretical method is applicable to monopoly as well as competition and has dealt with both. It has been, of course, a theoretically "ideal" monopoly also—the real assumption being an exceptional instance of perfect monopoly in a general system of perfect competition. The contrast between theory and reality and the significance of the former is of the same sort in both cases, and we shall also discuss the meaning of perfect monopoly in the proper connection. (Chapter VI.)

12. It will be perceived that the word "profit" is here used in the sense of "pure profit, a distributive share different from the returns to the productive services of land, labor, and capital.

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第七章 血幕中的觉醒 - 来自《解放战争全记录第四卷》

21.在矛盾中挣扎和斗争  解放军攻克锦州不久,便听到了长春解放的喜讯。  1948年9月22日晚,长春中长路理事会大楼,第60军军部,军长曾泽生办公室。  星星点点,长空欲坠。东北的深秋夜已有一丝凉意,夜的长春显得更加悲凉。曾泽生从收音机里得知吴化文起义的消息,大为震动,心想长春的命运真正到了重新选择的十字路口。  曾泽生和第60军到长春后日子一天不如一天。  第60军兵员严重不足,装备又差,而最重要的是吃饭问题,如何保住活命。如果连命都保不住,还奢谈什么打仗?  天气渐渐冷起来,冬装粮草皆无,陷入从未遇到过的苦境,似恶……去看看 

第34部分 - 来自《大雪无痕》

周密围上他那条半新不旧的黑白花围巾,然后穿上那件羊绒的黑大衣,拿上皮手套,关上灯,锁上门,慢慢地向电梯口走去时,大约离他跟丁洁约好的见面时间还有40分钟左右。     开车去那儿,最多大约只需要30分钟——把这会儿因下班交通高峰路上塞车可能花去的时间也都计算进去了——他完全可以再晚走一会儿。但他不。他喜欢准时,喜欢从容,喜欢看到别人匆匆忙忙慌里慌张地赶着来看他,而他自己却万事俱备他从容不迫地在那儿洒脱地等着。另外他也不爱开快车。,他也需要给自己多留几分钟的时间在路上用。他喜欢让车平稳地匀速地在“各种空……去看看 

第六章 平等、价值与品行 - 来自《自由秩序原理》

对于那种追求平等的热情,我毫无尊重之感,因为这种热情对我来说,只是一种理想化了的妒忌而已。——O.W.霍姆斯(Oliver Wendell Holmes,Jr.)   1.争取自由的斗争的伟大目标,始终是法律面前人人平等(equality before the law)。国家强制实施的规则下的这种平等,可由人们在彼此之间的关系中自愿遵从的规则下的一种与其相似的平等予以补充。这种将法律面前人人平等的原则扩大至包括道德的和社会的行为规则(the rules of moral and social conduct),实乃人们通常所说的民主精神(democratic spirit)的主要表现——这种民主精神在缓和人们对……去看看 

结束语 - 来自《中国的道路》

历史构成了一个民族的世界景象的主干,每一个民族在真正获得了精神上的复兴,产生了自由的创造意志之后,都会从其当下的处境和问题出发,对自己的历史进行重构。在这本书中,我们几乎将全部的注意力都用在了对国内的经济社会现象的分析和解释上,最后,我们准备匆匆地瞥一眼我们民族在世界历史中的处境作为结束。  在西方社会中,每过几十年,每次经历了重大的历史事变——世界大战的爆发或者世界格局的变迁——之后,都会有人出来从新的角度,用新的方式重写世界史。最近的这样一次尝试是由美国历史学家斯塔夫里阿诺斯作出的。在《全球通……去看看 

三次预见预言 - 来自《走下圣坛的周恩来》

总理是讲过自己不是帅才,邓大姐也这样说,我们听了不舒服;主席和小平再这样讲,我们曾感到委屈。现在回想起来,是传统文化、传统观念影响我们的结果。谁位高,谁就位尊德高;谁官大,谁就本事大、贡献大。中国过去就是这种观念,这个毛病。改变不容易。雷锋只是一个班长,说起他全国没人不知道,但百分之九十九的人不知道他的军长、师长是谁?话又说回来,许多人还是想当军长不想当班长,所以说改变不容易。   总理讲他做不到举重若轻,但同样的,主席和小平也做不到举轻若重。不拘一格降人才,我们的事业才能兴旺发达,我们的目的才能实现。   1949……去看看